ON DECK FOR TUESDAY, DECEMBER 3
KEY POINTS:
- Markets await the week’s main developments
- Fed-speak adds a little to December cut pricing
- French bonds are in a holding pattern ahead of tomorrow’s confidence vote
- Swiss CPI keeps markets on the fence toward SNB upsizing
- US JOLTS, vehicle sales on tap
- Canada’s bank earnings season kicks off
There are very light developments to consider this morning. France is in a holding pattern with the government likely to fail a confidence motion tomorrow. Data releases are of little consequence. Fed-speak added a touch to December FOMC rate cut pricing after Governor Waller spoke late yesterday and said “at present I lean toward supporting a cut.” More Fed-speak is on tap today.
Swiss CPI Fails to Sway SNB Pricing
Overnight releases were very light. Swiss CPI was on the screws at -0.1% m/m NSA with EU-harmonized CPI down -05% and core up a tick to 0.9% y/y. Markets slightly trimmed priced for the December 12th SNB decision and are on the fence toward -25 and -50bps.
BoK Vindicated
South Korean CPI validated the BoK’s surprise cut last week by landing at -0.3% m/m (-0.1% consensus). Core CPI was up a tick to 1.9% y/y but entirely on year-ago base effects as m/m core NSA was little changed (+0.027% m/m) which was in line with the historical average for like months of November.
Turkish CPI Leans Against Near-Term Easing
Turkish CPI didn’t scream out for the Central Bank of Turkey to shift toward easing mode any time soon despite prior guidance. It was up 2.2% m/m NSA (1.9% consensus) with core at 47.1% y/y. President Erdogan, however, recently remarked that he expects rate cuts to begin soon.
Fed-Speak, JOLTS, Vehicle Sales
Fed-speak (Kugler 12:35pmET and Goolsbee 1:30pmET, 3:45pmET) and light US data are on tap. JOLTS job vacancies for October (10amET) offer the most market risk today ahead of Friday’s payrolls. Vehicle sales are expected to jump (consensus 16.1 million SAAR, Scotia 16.5, prior 16.0) based on industry guidance and arrive late this afternoon.
Canada’s Bank Earnings Season
BNS kicked off the Canadian bank Q4 and full year earnings season. Q4 EPS (C$1.57, consensus $1.60) and revenues ($8.53B, consensus $8.61) both disappointed consensus expectations but masked strategic progress into 2025. See here for more. RBC and National release tomorrow, followed by BMO, CIBC, and TD on Thursday.
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