ON DECK FOR WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 4
KEY POINTS:
- France, Powell and data could make for a volatile market session
- France’s government might fall this morning
- Fed Chair Powell could share his thinking about December’s move
- Elevated US data risk with ISM-services, ADP on tap
- US vehicle sales will make a significant contribution to retail sales
- A pair of beats by Canadian banks
- Canada’s pathetic productivity trend to continue
- A$ underperforms after GDP miss
- Positive European PMI revisions
This could be a lively session. France holds its confidence vote shortly after debate starts at 4pm Paris (10amET). There is a strong belief that Le Pen’s National Rally and the French left will combine to vote down the government against Macron’s pleas this morning to think of the national interest, or at least his own. Accordingly, it’s unclear that most of the risk isn’t already priced in French bond spreads.
Significant US macro data that can often be impactful to markets is also on tap and follows a strong indicator for US retail sales that arrived late yesterday. Canada’s bank earnings season grinds on with a pair of beats. And the won is rebounding this morning after yesterday’s plunge but likely continues to face high risk as impeachment calls swirl against President Yoon Suk Yeol following his truly odd imposition of martial law—for a few hours.
Overnight developments were fairly thin:
- The A$ is underperforming and the Australian rates curve is outperforming after GDP missed. Q3 growth was 0.3% q/q SA nonannualized (0.5% consensus).
- The Eurozone composite PMI was revised slightly higher in November (48.3 instead of 48.1) after fresh PMIs from Spain and Italy and revisions to earlier PMIs from Germany and France.
- The UK composite PMI was also revised higher by six-tenths to 50.5 in November as the services PMI was revised up to show mils growth (50.8 instead of 50).
Fed-speak may be key and significant US macro reports are on tap:
- Fed Chair Powell speaks in a moderated discussion at 1:40pmET today. Watch for possible guidance on where he stands into the December 18th FOMC meeting. I suspect he’ll place significant conditionality upon Friday’s payrolls and next week’s CPI. Markets are priced for about 18bps of a quarter point cut. Other Fed speakers haven’t sounded very convincing including Governor Waller who “leans” toward a cut and San Fran’s Daly last evening who indicated she thinks easing will continue even if there isn’t a cut this month.
- US vehicle sales will be a solid contributor to retail sales growth in November. At 16.5 million SAAR, vehicle sales volumes would add about 0.3–0.4 ppts to November retail sales. Sales were the highest since May 2021 (chart 1). 82% of vehicle sales last month were light trucks, extending America’s love affair with them and potentially poised to get a massive jump in their fuel bills if Trump’s tariffs go ahead against Canada.
- ADP private payrolls (8:15amET) are guessed to land at 150k (Scotia 180k). It’s usually an unreliable indicator for nonfarm.
- ISM-services (10amET) are expected to continue the pattern of solid service sector growth with a reading in the mid-50s.
- Factory orders (10amET) won’t matter after all that but after the mild gain in durables and upon incorporating estimates for nondurable goods orders they are expected to post a mild gain.
- There will also be light Fed communications including Richmond’s Barkin (9amET), the Beige Book (2pmET), and San Fran’s Daly (6pmET).
Canada also releases minor reports with the focus still upon Friday’s jobs report:
- Canada will release productivity figures this morning (8:30amET). Q3 is expected to extend the decline to seven out of the past eight quarterly readings.
- Canada also releases S&P’s little watched PMIs for November later this morning (9:30amET).
The Canadian bank earnings continues with RBC beating estimates as EPS was C$3.07 versus consensus at $3.03. ROE also beat at 15.1% (14.6% consensus) and so did revenues ($15.07B, $14.79B consensus). National Bank also beat by a penny with EPS at C$2.58 and raised its dividend.
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