| ON DECK FOR TUESDAY, OCTOBER 29 |
KEY POINTS:
- Oil stabilizes, bonds cheapen on light developments
- US data will tease ahead of major reports…
- ...with the focus upon JOLTS and consumer confidence
- Light overnight releases
- BC’s election is finally over and it was a squeaker
- BoC’s Macklem, Rogers to deliver low-risk round 1 of parliamentary testimony
Oil prices have stabilized after yesterday’s drop. US Ts are slightly cheapening again this morning with the ten-year at 4.3% for its highest since early July and about 70bps off the September low. Most major global sovereign bond benchmarks are slightly cheaper. Equities are generally firmer, led by Japan, HK, and most of Europe amid flat S&P futures and a slight gain in Toronto.
LIGHT OVERNIGHT RELEASES
There were only light overnight releases.
There was a downtick in Japan’s unemployment rate to 2.4% that had no influence on the yen or JGBs.
Swedish GDP missed (-0.1% q/q SA, +0.3% consensus) and that is driving mild curve outperformance to elsewhere.
German consumer confidence slightly improved and is very close to the best reading since April 2022 after a general upward trend since late that year.
US DATA TO TEASE AHEAD OF MAJOR RELEASES
A few US macro reports will tease markets ahead of the week’s main US data later in the week when GDP, nonfarm and PCE arrive. The fun starts tomorrow with GDP for Q3 that is expected to be another roughly 3% quarter for back-to-back solid gains.
Key for now will be JOLTS job vacancies (10amET) and US consumer confidence (10amET) that land at the same time, either of which has the high risk of surprising.
Repeat sale home prices (9amET) are slowing their gains to under 5% y/y but mostly on year-ago base effects as the m/m SA gains remain material.
LIGHT DEVELOPMENTS IN CANADA
BC’s election is finally over with the incumbent NDP squeaking out a majority with 47–44–2 seats over the Conservatives (and Greens) for the narrowest possible majority after recounts were completed.
BoC parliamentary testimony is unlikely to reveal new information but round 1 with Governor Macklem and SDG Rogers will start just before the market close today (3:30pmET).
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