- Mexico: Q3 GDP, Banxico survey, unemployment, and remittances data await
In Mexico, this week will be full of relevant data. On Wednesday, INEGI will publish preliminary GDP figures for the third quarter, where aside from the headline growth figure we will get readings on the performance of each of the agricultural, industrial, and services sectors (Q3 expenditure accounts are due later in the year).
We anticipate a GDP growth slowdown from 2.1% y/y in Q2-2024 to 1.4% as a result of a drop in industrial activities, owing to the completion of public infrastructure projects as well as stalling manufacturing output. Likewise, we anticipate a slowdown in services from 2.5% in to 2.17% due to reduced momentum in consumption amid greater household and business uncertainty as well as weakness in formal job creation. On the latter, unemployment rate data for September out on Friday could also show signs of a slowing labour market, with the rate rising above 3.0%—though still below the 2010–2020 average (4.4%).
On Friday, Banxico will also publish the results to its October private sector economists expectations survey. We expect that growth estimates for 2025 will be reviewed downwards, alike what happened in the survey published by Citibanamex last week, where analysts adjusted their forecasts for 2025 GDP from 1.2% y/y to 1.0% y/y, in line with our estimate. The USDMXN outlook could also move higher as the US elections approach, with possibly higher volatility.
Finally, we will also get remittances data for September on Friday, which we anticipate will remain very close to USD6bn thanks to labour market resilience in the United States (while MXN weakness may also motivate inflows from the North).
—Rodolfo Mitchell, Brian Pérez & Miguel Saldaña
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