WHAT LIES AHEAD
Highlighting the estimates of the national population and components of growth, with a focus on the levels and flows of permanent and temporary residents. This report tracks admissions and issuances of individuals granted permission to permanently and temporarily reside in Canada, and whether these figures are aligning with federal government immigration targets.
Labour Force Survey population estimates begin the year with growth at more manageable levels
- Monthly 15+ year-old population growth continued its slowing trend into January, with one-month (2.0%) and three-month average (2.1%) growth (S.A.A.R.) in line with the initial growth statistics recorded in the early post-COVID era, but still hovering higher than pre-COVID growth figures.
With 2024 wrapped up, the focus now switches to the federal government’s ability in reaching their own lofty targets
- Published December data recorded year-to-date permanent resident admissions at 483,395, just under the annual target of 485,000 (99.7%). Attention now turns to the 2025 target of 395,000, with an emphasis on federal and provincial economic nominees.
- Temporary visa issuances among major streams saw a material decline vs. 2023, a clear sign that federal immigration restrictions are taking effect, with study permit issuances in the entirety of 2024 experiencing a large decline compared to the prior year. As mentioned in previous reports, however, it will take a lot more than large declines in study permit issuances to reach the temporary resident-to-population share goal of 5% by the end of 2026.
- With a share of those who have received visas in 2024 yet to arrive, coupled with the administrative and legislative barriers involved in how quickly the government could facilitate temporary resident exits, continue to make the notion of the federal government’s aim of stalling population growth in 2025 highly unlikely. 15+ year-old m/m (S.A.A.R.) population growth of 2% in January casts further doubts on that target.
- Additional scrutiny will be focused on the government’s ability to adhere to their own temporary resident targets, particularly those arriving under the International Mobility Program (by far the largest source of new work visa issuances in 2024). Looming federal elections render that path ahead all the more uncertain.
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