SLOWING IT ALL DOWN
Highlighting the estimates of the national population and components of growth, with a focus on the levels and flows of permanent and temporary residents. This report tracks admissions and issuances of individuals granted permission to permanently and temporarily reside in Canada, and whether these figures are aligning with federal government immigration targets.
Despite continued substantial growth to cap off 2024, early signs of a cooldown appear
- Lagged national population estimates recorded year-over-year growth of 2.3% (Oct 2024). Quarterly growth, however, points to a continued slowdown, with annualized (1.7%) and year-over-year figures the lowest this year, maintaining a trend that began in Q2-2024 and affirming the assumption of modestly-decreasing-but still-robust national population growth, as outlined in the previous Population in Canada report.
Labour Force Survey estimates point toward this trend continuing into 2025
- Monthly growth of 67,100 (S.A.A.R.) in the 15+ population means 2024 ends with the lowest single (2.4%) and three-month trend (2.8%) of the year, continuing the downward trajectory in growth first witnessed in the October survey.
Almost there with permanents, a long way to go with temporaries
- November immigration data shows the federal government well on track to reach their 2024 permanent resident target of 485,000, (93% admitted). With one month of data to be recorded, a great over-or-undershoot in this stream is highly unlikely.
- Non-permanent residents as a share of the total population, however, recorded a very slight uptick versus the previous quarter (7.3%), now reaching 7.4% in Q4 estimates, despite a clear reduction in visa issuances among major streams compared to 2023.
- The increase compared to Q3-2024 constitutes the lowest increase in share witnessed for the year, as measures put in place throughout 2024 take hold. This can be seen particularly in the temporary student population, where fluctuations in visa issuances and stock are quite closely aligned, given the seasonal nature of when students begin and conclude their studies. Lower issuances versus the previous year (over -18% compared to the same point in 2023), combined with existing students completing their schooling and leaving, have consistently chipped away at the overall international student population throughout the course of the year, with Q4 figures close to 5% lower than three months prior.
- It is an initial step in the federal government’s long journey to reach their stated 5% share goal by the end of 2026, one we maintain is unlikely, along with their aim to stall growth entirely over the next two years. Even as we enter a federal election year, with a government determined to show results on a hotly-debated issue (and a near-universal consensus that growth needs to slow), administrative limitations and barriers puts limits on how quickly the government can shrink the temporary resident population and slow overall growth nationally.
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