ON TRACK IN SOME AREAS, A BUMPY ROAD AHEAD IN OTHERS
Highlighting the estimates of the national population and components of growth, with a focus on the levels and flows of permanent and temporary residents. This report tracks admissions and issuances of individuals granted permission to permanently and temporarily reside in Canada, and whether these figures are aligning with federal government immigration targets.
Population growth continues to surge.
- May’s Labour Force Survey data reported a 3.6% (S.A.A.R.) increase in the 15 year old+ population compared to April.
- This 97,600 increase since the release of last month’s report maintained the trend of robust population growth through 2024 so far, with the last three months averaging growth of 3.7% (S.A.A.R.). Compared to May of last year, Canada’s 15+ population is up by almost 1.1 million.
- The increase in the labour force population is down by roughly half when compared to April’s explosive growth numbers, although m/m growth of 3% (S.A.A.R.) is still significantly high, especially when compared to pre-pandemic levels.
A quarter of the year recorded, a quarter of the goal reached.
- Canada admitted another 34,785 permanent residents among its major categories in March, totalling 121,620 admissions for the year so far, approximately 25% of the annual goal of 485,000 the federal government set for 2024.
On the other hand, sharply higher permit issuances for non-permanent residents may complicate future stock targets.
- March saw 146,260 issuances across its major streams, with International Mobility Program issuances representing just under 60% of those issuances.
- Total issuances across major streams surpassed 400,000 for 2024, 25.5% higher than at the same point in 2023.
- As mentioned previously, while these new issuances do not necessarily equate to new arrivals, the eventual arrival of these new residents could complicate the federal government’s 3-year target of shrinking the temporary resident share of the total population to 5%.
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