MUCH CAN CHANGE IN A MONTH
Highlighting the estimates of the national population and components of growth, with a focus on the levels and flows of permanent and temporary residents. This report tracks admissions and issuances of individuals granted permission to permanently and temporarily reside in Canada, and whether these figures are aligning with federal government immigration targets.
The era of robust population growth is over its peak
- Monthly 15+ year-old population growth in February continued its decelerating trend, with both the month-over-month and three-month average recording growth figures under 2.0% (S.A.A.R). Quarterly annualized national population growth through to January 1st, meanwhile, slowed to levels (excluding the COVID era) frequently recorded in the 2010s. While year-over-year growth of 1.8% vs 2023 is still elevated when compared to historical trends, it marks a significant step back from the trends witnessed through 2023 and the first half of 2024.
Temporary resident stock appears to have started its reversal, albeit not at the pace the federal government was hoping for
- The temporary resident population as a share of the total population ticked down slight from 7.4% in the previous quarter to 7.3%. Overall stock saw its first net decline in three years, largely attributed another contraction of study permit holders, though partially offset by growth of over 25,000 in asylum claimant figures.
- Asylum claimants are now defined in the Non-Permanent Resident Stock Estimates section of this report. Their population estimates, changes and share of the total population will be tracked with each quarterly population update.
As a federal election looms against heightened geo-political risk south of the border, immigration policy, for months a political lightning rod, takes a back seat
- While an election date has not yet been officially announced at the time of this publication, media is reporting a call is expected within days and is likely set for April 28th.
- Both leading candidates have put forward their views and a number of objectives when it comes to sustainable immigration policy, such as Mark Carney favouring capped immigration until it can return to pre-pandemic trends, and Pierre Poilievre discussing tying immigration targets to housing supply and reforming the Temporary Foreign Worker and international student programs.
- Public sentiment, however, has shifted due to rapid developments from the US. The implementation of tariffs, threats of additional tariffs and general rhetoric towards Canada has solidified voters’ concerns with the Canadian economy and the cost of living, while relations with the US has also become a leading voter matter. Immigration, while still on the minds of the Canadian electorate, is not at the forefront as it once was.
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