DOUBLING DOWN
Highlighting the estimates of the national population and components of growth, with a focus on the levels and flows of permanent and temporary residents. This report tracks admissions and issuances of individuals granted permission to permanently and temporarily reside in Canada, and whether these figures are aligning with federal government immigration targets.
On October 24th, the federal government announced sweeping new immigration measures, encompassing both the permanent and non-permanent streams
- Annual permanent resident targets, previously 500,000 for both 2025 and 2026, have been reduced to 395,000 and 380,000 over the coming two years, with 2027’s target set at 365,000.
- Temporary resident targets have also been introduced for the first time, with admissions on students and Temporary Foreign Worker Program permit holders capped at 305,900 and 82,000, respectively, over the next three years. International Mobility Program permit holders, still the largest share of temporary workers in Canada, see their admission numbers fall by over 50% between 2025 and 2026, before rising slightly in 2027.
These measures reflect a government doubling down on their efforts to reach their
non-permanent resident target of 5% of the total population by the end of 2026, but serious questions remain
- Our previous report (released prior to the government’s announcement) questioned whether the 5% target in the remaining timeframe was a realistic target anymore. Even with aggressive new measures, administrative limitations and barriers could leave population growth higher than what the government forecasted in their announcement, which Scotiabank Economics has covered in more detail here and here.
Meanwhile, Canada’s solid population growth continues to march upward albeit more slowly, while the effect of earlier measures may start to have an impact soon
- Although 15 year old+ population growth recorded another month of over 3% (S.A.A.R.), as per Labour Force Survey estimates, it also constituted the lowest monthly growth figure of the year, narrowly lower than the 3.07% recorded in February.
- 2024 temporary permit issuances are now lower across the board vs. last year (by double digits in some cases) which will translate to a slowdown in new arrivals over time—the result of measures put in place earlier this year.
- These data points are broadly in line with our best-guess population growth in the order of 2.9% in 2024—given how late in the year these most recent announcements have come, coupled with the time it has taken to see the effect of previous restriction announcements—and 0.9% in 2025. As the largest share of newly issued temporary work permits, the International Mobility Program will be the stream to watch in 2025. The federal government’s ability to both stick to intake targets for this stream, as well as transitioning some to PR status, while declining visa renewals to others, will be a major component of whether or not future population growth figures will be met.
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