BACK TO SCHOOL FOR SOME, BACK TO THE DRAWING BOARD FOR OTHERS?
Highlighting the estimates of the national population and components of growth, with a focus on the levels and flows of permanent and temporary residents. This report tracks admissions and issuances of individuals granted permission to permanently and temporarily reside in Canada, and whether these figures are aligning with federal government immigration targets.
Recently-released quarterly population estimates are no surprise, given monthly trends witnessed throughout the year
- Lagged quarterly official national estimates recorded population growth of slightly over 250,000, translating to annualized quarterly growth and year-over-year growth of 2.5% and 3.0%, respectively.
- These robust patterns should come as no surprise, given solid monthly growth in the 15+ population numbers reported in the Labour Force Survey throughout the year, while September’s data reported a 4% (S.A.A.R.) increase (the fourth highest recording this year), with the three-month moving average following suit and reaching its own record high in 2024.
Potential study permit holders are feeling the effect of caps announced earlier in the year
- Year-to-date issuances (Jan–Aug) were over 19% lower compared to the same point in 2023, while August issuances, historically the high point of the year, were 45% lower compared to permits issued in August 2023.
Recent announcements on additional temporary resident restrictions, as well as further policy announcements anticipated in November, illustrate a government trying to keep up with its own goals
- Updated national population estimates brought with it an update on the total number of non-permanent residents in Canada, with the figure now reaching just over 3 million, an increase of 4.1% versus last quarter.
- More specifically, Canada’s non-permanent resident stock as a share of the total population is now approximately 7.3%, straying further from the federal government’s target of 5% by 2027, while continuing its post-COVID growth trend.
- As Canada’s population growth essentially relies entirely on immigration, drastic measures and policy re-evaluations would now be needed to meet their target. Given the remaining timeframe, questions on how to reach their target may need to pivot to whether their targets are even a realistic possibility at this point.
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