SO WHAT NEXT?
Highlighting the estimates of the national population and components of growth, with a focus on the levels and flows of permanent and temporary residents. This report tracks admissions and issuances of individuals granted permission to permanently and temporarily reside in Canada, and whether these figures are aligning with federal government immigration targets.
Strong monthly Labour Force Survey data points towards another high quarterly population reading
- August’s Labour Force Survey reported another solid month of population growth in the 15+ category, with growth of 96,400 vs. July. This month-over-month increase of 3.5% (S.A.A.R.) extends the trend of monthly growth of over 3.0% (S.A.A.R.) since the start of the year (and 3.9% in the last three months), hinting toward another robust quarter of overall population growth when Statistics Canada publishes its next national estimate.
Recent announcements on the restrictions on temporary foreign workers may stem population growth on the margin, but it is too early to see this in the data just yet, while many long-term questions remain
- On August 26, the Prime Minister announced new immigration restrictions in an effort to reduce the number of temporary foreign workers in Canada. Starting September 26, the Government of Canada will refuse to process Labour Market Impact Assessments (LMIAs) in the Low-Wage stream in census metropolitan areas (CMAs) where unemployment rates are 6% or higher. Additionally, employers will be allowed to hire no more than 10% of their total workforce through the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP). These changes could help remove some pressure on unemployment rates, particularly in youth-focused jobs, as new arrivals have outpaced job creation. The Prime Minister also indicated that permanent resident targets are under review.
- The TFWP, however, remains a much smaller source of new permit issuances when compared to other major streams, such as the International Mobility Program (IMP) and study permits. Along with a range of sector-specific exceptions (e.g. food security, healthcare and construction), it remains to be seen whether this announcement alone will be enough to tamper the number of temporary foreign workers to a level in line with government expectations, or whether additional restrictions will be announced in the near future.
- Meanwhile, issuances of temporary permits through July are generally in line with issuances at the same point a year ago (1.5% greater vs Jan–July 2023). IMP permits, the largest source of temporary permit issuances this year, has seen a 6.3% increase in year-to-date issuances vs 2023, while TWFPs have recorded a 3.6% decrease over the same period, prior to the government’s announcement on restrictions. Upcoming August study permit data, normally a peak month for issuances, will provide us with clarity on how effective the government’s cap on post-secondary study permits has been.
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