Latam Flash: Peru—Opening Pandora’s Box: Cabinet Resignation in Context

• The President of the Council of Ministers (colloquially called the Prime Minister) Aníbal Torres, resigned last night, followed by the remainder of the ministerial cabinet, in full.   

• President Castillo interpreted the decision to not carry out a vote of confidence on this specific single-issue matter as an outright denial of a vote of confidence on government policy. A second denial would constitutionally entitle (but not require) the Executive to dissolve Congress.  

• Recent political events have opened up a plethora of scenarios that include the dissolution of Congress, or potentially dismissing President Castillo’s government one way or another. Having said this, it is still possible that things settle down once a new cabinet is in place.

The President of the Council of Ministers (colloquially called the Prime Minister) Aníbal Torres, resigned last night, followed by the remainder of the ministerial cabinet, in full.   

The departure follows Congressional verdict yesterday that a single-issue proposal cannot be considered for a vote of confidence in Congress, as opposed to the totality of cabinet policies. The Executive had requested a vote of confidence on new legislation that would have permitted sidestepping Congress in the calling of referendums—a single-issue proposal.

The Executive interpreted the decision to not carry out a vote of confidence on this specific single-issue matter as an outright denial of a vote of confidence on government policy. By law, when Congress denies a confidence vote request by the Council, the totality of Council must resign—and so it did last night.

Late last night, President Castillo appeared on national media to accept the Council’s resignation, stating that a new cabinet will be named shortly. He also made statements that suggest that the congressional “refusal” (“rehusamiento”) may be interpreted as a first denial of a vote of confidence. This is notable, given that if Congress were to deny a subsequent vote of confidence put forward by a new cabinet, this second denial would constitutionally entitle (but not require) the Executive to dissolve Congress.

Meanwhile, Peru’s Congressional Constitutional Committee will be in session Friday afternoon to discuss two proposals. One regards calls for the suspension of President Castillo, reportedly for 36 months. The other pertains to a constitutional reform to allow for early “general” elections (congressional and presidential).

Thus, to put it briefly, recent political events have opened up a plethora of scenarios that include the dissolution of Congress, or potentially dismissing President Castillo’s government one way or another. Having said this, it is still possible that things settle down once a new cabinet is in place.

A few things to consider:

• Although the cabinet has resigned in full, as it must, the President can reappoint its members. The only exception is the head of the cabinet, PM Torres. The new cabinet will undergo a vote of confidence determined by law, providing the opportunity (though unlikely) of a second denial by Congress.
• The composition of the new cabinet, and who is selected as head of the Council, will be key in determining what President Castillo’s intentions are. Too radical a cabinet could imply an intention to try to force Congress into a second vote of confidence denial.
• It’s not indisputable that President Castillo is seeking to dismiss Congress although he has ramped up his threats with greater intensity of late. The main counterpoint is that a new Congress, chosen via general election, could conceivably result in greater opposition to Castillo. At this early stage, political analysts seem divided regarding whether the Executive is seeking to force a second denial and close Congress, or whether he simply wishes to keep the sword of Damocles hanging over Congress for the sake of his own survival.
• We will be keeping a sharp eye out to see whether Finance Minister Kurt Burneo is reinstated. Although this is a position that does not quite figure in political discussions, it is of such importance that any change is cause for concern. There is no assurance that a new appointment would be someone reliable.
• If Congress were to be dismissed, new elections would need to be called to occur in four months’ time.
• Some legal experts are saying that a suspension from office of President Castillo would be against the spirit of the Constitution, if not the text itself, as this procedure is reserved for cases when the President may be physically impaired, temporarily.
• A constitutional reform to allow for early elections would need to go through two separate legislatures.
• Presidential impeachment is not currently, actively discussed in Congress, but it is part of broad political discussions.
• There are a host of legal issues that will need to be addressed by the country’s legal institutions. However, decisions and procedures through legal institutions will not necessarily coincide with the timing of political events. This will add another layer of uncertainty.
• In the meantime, events are evolving, and the weekend is likely to be a lively one. The one thing that is certain, is that there is greater uncertainty.