To explain how the Earth’s complex climate system works, Dr. Thomas Wagner relies on a vintage analogy: a 1970s-era stereo system. The music represents the temperature of the planet, while the knobs represent various components such as carbon dioxide and clouds, he says.
“When we do climate modeling, we’re figuring out the relationships among all these knobs and how changing them is going to change the music, or the temperature of the planet,” Wagner said during a recent virtual panel, hosted by Scotiabank’s Environmental & Climate Action Employee Resource Group to coincide with Earth Day on April 22.
While our planet is already set on a course for continued warming, and the ramifications that come with that, Wagner remains hopeful that the worst-case scenarios for late 21st century can be avoided. He points to the groundswell of activity and interest in reducing the amount of carbon put in the atmosphere and innovation as potential bright spots.
But it will be the private sector and individuals, rather than scientists like himself, that will be the key players, he added.
“Governments can encourage change, but it's really the private sector, the bankers, the entrepreneurs and insurers and other people that are really going to take the next steps and play a role in helping us mitigate this near-term change, as well as the long-term change,” said Wagner, who has worked as specialist on polar climate science at both the US National Science Foundation and NASA.
Wagner’s comments came during the virtual presentation and panel with Jean-François Perrault, the Bank’s Chief Economist, and Sandra Odendahl, Vice-President of Social Impact and Sustainability.
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Photo: Dr. Thomas Wagner has worked as specialist on polar climate science at both the US National Science Foundation and NASA
Scotiabank has made mitigation of climate change a priority. In November 2019, the Bank outlined its Climate Commitments aimed at supporting the transition to a lower-carbon and more resilient economy. The commitments include mobilizing $100 billion by 2025 to reduce the impacts of climate change and creating a Climate Change Centre of Excellence to contribute to the global conversation on the issue. As well, the Bank is decarbonizing its own operations while finding innovative solutions to reduce the impacts of climate change.
For example, the Bank is looking to install solar panels on more of its facilities, particularly in the Caribbean and Latin America, said Odendahl. As well, several branches located in Ontario are offering electric vehicle charging stations that are available to the public, she added. Over the next four years, Scotiabank will be ensuring that all of the electricity purchased for facilities across Canada will be emission-free, and implement that policy globally by 2030.
These are just some of the things the Bank is doing “to show that we walk the talk and set a good example, hopefully, for other organizations,” said Odendahl.
During his presentation, Wagner outlined the climate change already evident across the planet, including the shrinking Arctic sea and land ice, resulting in less of the sun’s hot rays being reflected away from Earth and higher sea levels leading to increased flooding in populated cities.
The planet has already warmed by one degree centigrade since the beginning of the industrial revolution, and we need to prevent the climate from warming by another degree centigrade, he said.
While that may seem like a minor increment, it’s important to note that degree of warming is not evenly distributed across the planet, he said, citing an image of Canada from last month that showed warming of four degrees or warmer in some areas.
“When we talk about a degree, we talk about much more change over the land areas and the ecosystems where we all live and grow food,” he said.
Wagner retains hope that positive change can still be made, particularly as millennials and Gen Z who grew up with awareness of climate change take on more senior roles in the business world.
“As they take the reins of power they're going to really help us with those long-term awful scenarios by reducing CO2.”
One simple option that could help mitigate climate change is sequestering carbon, where, for example, a power plant could capture CO2 and pump it underground or store it in concrete, rather than releasing it into the atmosphere, he said. “It’s treating CO2 like sewage,” Wagner explained.
Some of the solutions that are more in the realm of science fiction but may be important emergency measures to cool the planet in some ways include geoengineering, which is changing the planet on a fundamental level. For example, one could fertilize the ocean in order to grow algae that pulls carbon dioxide out of the ocean and atmosphere, he said.
Another would be to put aerosols or dust into the upper atmosphere to reflect more sunlight back into space, Wagner said.
“There are a lot of innovative approaches that cause me to hopeful that we can mitigate climate change and help protect people and the wider world,” he said. “And we have so many amazing new tools to bring to bear on this problem, especially with advances in climate science and satellite data. And they are only getting better all of the time.”
