THE WAITING GAME
Highlighting the estimates of the national population and components of growth, with a focus on the levels and flows of permanent and temporary residents. This report tracks admissions and issuances of individuals granted permission to permanently and temporarily reside in Canada, and whether these figures are aligning with federal government immigration targets.
November’s Labour Force Survey arrived in force
- Although the weakest m/m (S.A.A.R.) reading of the year, 15+ year old population growth still recorded a solid increase of 80,100, a 2.9% jump over the previous month, contributing to a 3-month trend of 3.3% (S.A.A.R.) as we head towards the end of the year. With Canada’s population estimates being released later this month, all signs point to another quarter of modestly-decelerating-but-still-robust growth.
- Despite decent job gains (additional context here), a spike in the unemployment rate grabbed headlines owing to a surge in the labour force. However, it should not necessarily come as a surprise owing to a likely surge in temporary residents in the country (frantically) seeking to secure a job to enhance the opportunities to stay following the October announcement. This will likely continue to play out in the months ahead.
Seeing the year out in one aspect, seeing how the rest of the year goes in another
- The big questions coming on the back of the federal government’s plan to rehaul its immigration policies (particularly in the temporary resident category) in late October are: How large of an impact will these policies ultimately have and when will we start seeing their effects?
- One thing is for certain: given available immigration data is as of October, it will still be quite some time until we begin to see the consequences of these recent announcements. The number of new temporary residents should come down over time, as the issuance of temporary permits by IRCC through October is down compared to 2023. It is particularly pronounced for international students (-19% ytd), while across major categories, permits are down by just over 10%.
- One picture which is much sharper, however, is the government’s 2024 permanent resident target, reaching approximately 85% of their current goal (among major streams) as of October. As we wait for the final two months of admission recordings for the year, the path to 485,000 is both clear and achievable. The government is also aggressively granting PR status to higher shares of those already in the country on temporary status. Just over half (52%) of PR admissions through October were granted to temporary permit holders.
- Nevertheless, even with expected implementation lags, the combined data still suggests the government will likely fall short of population attrition targets. With this month’s upcoming quarterly population report, we will have a better sense of those gaps, but current trends reaffirm our expectations for population growth of 0.9% and 0.5% over the next two years, versus the government’s plan to stall growth entirely.
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